BETHLEHEM, Pa. — It looks like Lehigh Valley residents should brace themselves for a long, hot summer.
That’s the takeaway from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other detailed seasonal outlooks, which predict a sizzling meteorological summer for many.
Meteorological summer kicked off June 1 and lasts through Aug. 31, while astronomical summer begins with the June solstice.
The exact date and time of the solstice varies year to year, but typically falls on June 20 or 21.
This year, the summer solstice occurs Thursday, June 20, at 4:50 p.m. EDT. It ends 93 days later on Sept. 22 at 8:43 a.m. EDT.
According to AccuWeather, this year marks the earliest summer solstice since 1796 when it occurred at 1:45 p.m. ET June 20.
Setting the stage
Our warmest day of the spring was April 29, when a new daily record high temperature of 88 degrees was set at Lehigh Valley International Airport, breaking the old record of 86 for the date set in 1974.
It also was record-setting for Philadelphia, which had its first 90-degree day in April since 2009.
The start of May then broke the warm spell and instead saw a number of unseasonably chilly days — including several where high temperatures were 10 to 12 degrees below normal.
Temperatures rebounded in the back half of the month, including a 10-day stretch during which highs pushed into the upper 80s repeatedly and the heat index into the 90s.
When all was said and done, May was the Lehigh Valley’s sixth consecutive warmer-than-normal month, with an average temperature of 63.4 degrees — or 1.4 degrees above normal.
Headlines: summer to prevail
Temperatures in the Lehigh Valley hit 90 or above six times last year from June 1 to Aug. 31.
That was nothing compared to the summer before, which saw 20 days at or above 90, including a seven-day stretch in July and a six-day stretch in August.
The meteorological summer of 2021 also saw 21 days at or above the 90-degree mark.
So will this summer be noticeably warmer than last year?
The answer is a resounding “yes” if you believe NOAA, Climate Central, Axios, AccuWeather and more. That will be especially true at night, when average low temperatures have trended well above normal.
NOAA’s long-range outlook, which covers June through August, projects a warmer-than-average summer for just about all 50 states (with the outliers being the Dakotas and parts of Minnesota).
A large swath of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are projected to have a high probability of above-normal temperatures for the duration.
In many major cities, including Philadelphia, New York City and Washington D.C., AccuWeather predicts there likely will be twice as many 90-degree days compared with last year.
A key factor could be our rapidly waning El Niño, with the strong possibility that a La Niña pattern develops by late summer, experts say.
The former favors cooler summers, while the latter favors warmer summers.
"Our thoughts for July as a whole is that it may be a relatively hot month overall."EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich
EPAWA meteorologist Bobby Martrich recently addressed that in his latest long-range outlook, noting the pattern should take a warmer turn as we head into July.
“Although we limit the long-range outlooks purposefully at a 5-6 week lead time with accuracy in mind, our thoughts for July as a whole is that it may be a relatively hot month overall," Martich wrote.
"Which means hotter than it typically is even for July, one of the hottest months of the year."
